The headline on the front page of the U.S. print edition of the Financial Times this past Saturday read “Travel Boom as holidays come first. Record profits for airlines. Bookings defy high fares. Spending buoys global economy.” Indeed, we seem to be in a boom time, despite the sense of unease about the global economy — here in the U.S., positive economic news is tempering concerns about a potential recession, but there’s still plenty of anxiety. The question is how long the good times will last.

There was a bit of a kerfuffle here in New York recently about the city’s revamp of the time-honored I ❤️ NY logo. The tourism board tweaked the beloved original, designed by Milton Glaser in 1976, into a clumsily off-kilter I ♥️ NYC, catching heat from marketing pros and city residents alike. It reminded me of the importance of getting visual branding just right, conveying novelty while respecting existing brand equity.

From The New York Times and Travel + Leisure, to Architectural Digest and Eater, many publications like to make predictions of the “hot” places to travel. Here’s my list — with a twist. It’s based not on new hotel openings and blockbuster museum shows, but on destinations that exemplify various issues the industry is contending with. They’re all wonderful places to visit in their own right, but they’re “hot spots” in a different sense of the word.

In early August, I reported on the results of a survey of wealthy U.S. consumers I conducted in partnership with Chandler Mount and his Affluent Consumer Research Company. Among our key findings: Demand for luxury travel was taking off, consumers were splashing out for bigger and further-flung trips, and younger folks use a different set of yardsticks to gauge their satisfaction with a travel brand.

Remember what the travel industry looked like one year ago? Travelers were hitting the road in droves, spending their ballooning savings, and satisfying their long-suppressed desire to travel. A new variant of COVID was spreading rapidly. And labor shortages among travel suppliers were causing disruption and dissatisfaction with how service was being delivered. Sounds a lot like Summer 2022, doesn’t it? Of course, there are many differences between what’s happening right now and a year ago. Many of those differences are clear from the results of a survey I just completed in partnership with Affluent Consumer Research Company, headed by Chandler Mount.

Two years ago, at the peak of the pandemic, it seemed nearly impossible that cruise lines would escape the cloud created by COVID, darkening their reputation in health and safety. Today, however, pent-up demand and skyrocketing hotel rates have primed the market for cruise lines to gain market share exponentially. Through better bundled values, high-end service, and adaptive health and safety protocols, the trajectory of cruise lines is incredibly well on the rise. 

Here’s a sentence I never thought I’d write: Greetings from Saudi Arabia! I am visiting this unexpected destination to look at tourism development opportunities in Riyadh, Al-’Ula, Jeddah, and elsewhere. Saudi is fascinating, stunning, hospitable, and, from my Western perspective, very surprising. There are obviously very serious human rights concerns to take into consideration. But the country’s efforts to slowly open itself up to tourism has me thinking quite a bit about the future of our industry.

Normally at this time of year I send you the results of our annual Pulse of the Industry Survey. This year, well, let’s just say that the pulse is a little bit hard to read at the moment. Once the patient stabilizes a bit (sorry to torture the metaphor) and there’s more clarity in the marketplace, we’ll survey our industry peers to understand their feelings about business and where it’s going. In the meantime, I have been speaking to a number of travel advisors about the current state of affairs and thought it worth sharing a few of the common threads I’m hearing.

“How is the recovery going for your business?” For every 10 people in the travel industry that I ask that question, I get 10 different responses — and 10 different predictions as to what might happen next. But just about everyone agrees on one thing: Hiring has become very, very challenging. The so-called “Great Resignation” is happening across industries (and across the globe, if unevenly), and even if it’s somewhat exaggerated, it seems to be hitting travel, restaurants, and leisure especially badly. And the problem is global, as far as I can tell.

We are entering a pivotal moment in our industry’s recovery from the pandemic, with both good and bad news across the board. Vaccines have unleashed a huge amount of pent-up demand. Airplanes and hotels are packed, prices have risen, and employers are struggling to fill vacant positions. On the other hand, corporate and MICE still lag far behind the leisure recovery. And the delta variant (and others) are threatening to put a halt to all our progress.

The great news from Europe last Wednesday, that the European Union will allow vaccinated vacationers back this summer, could not have come at a better time as there is no doubt we are seeing and hearing of booking momentum. Everyone I talk to is focused on forward bookings, staffing challenges, and other immediate-term issues. It’s an exciting time, if still chaotic and frustrating. It’s important to keep one eye on the future, as we build for coming success. What are the broader lessons we’ve learned in the past year-and-change that are worth holding onto? What wisdom can we use for our businesses in the future, but also guide our everyday thinking?

This must be what Purgatory feels like. One year after the first lockdowns, travel is still stuck in the in-between: much better than the catastrophe of 2020, but not quite ready to celebrate yet. For every reason to be hopeful — an uptick in bookings, progress with vaccinations, talks about global health passports — there is a reason for continued caution.

More optimists than pessimists in Strategic Vision’s 2021 Pulse of the Industry Survey, which measured the post-pandemic travel outlook of both luxury travelers and travel advisors. Trending this year: Europe, safaris, domestic trips. Cruises and staycations? Not so much.

To say that we are navigating an uncertain world is a huge understatement. The pandemic, the economy, the American election, the future of our great industry — are all causing substantial confusion, anxiety, and stress. While we are all focused on figuring out what might happen next and how to deal with it, one issue that I fear we are not paying enough attention to is mental health. Whether you are considering your workforce, your business partners, or your clients, emotional and psychological wellness is at risk.

In my previous post, I wrote to you about the issues of racism and diversity and how the travel industry comes up short in multiple ways. I also shared insights and advice from experts I’ve spoken to. I’ve received a sizable number of responses so far. Most have been positive, thanking me for exploring the subject. Others have complained that I’ve waded into politics—however, I see this not as a political issue but as a business issue. Today, I focus on the subjects of marketing and operations, as well as the concept of “anti-racism,” and make the business case for why diversity matters.

The last time I wrote, in May, we were still trying to understand the short- and long-term effects of the global pandemic. We have learned quite a bit since, but with recovery faltering in many places, the overall outlook is still a bit cloudy. One thing I believe we’ve all learned is to expect the unexpected. But I’m writing now on a different topic. Among the many surprising things to have happened this year is how quickly the issue of race and diversity has burst into our collective consciousness

As I write this, the travel industry is beginning to see some light at the end of the tunnel. The recovery will be likely tentative at first, and focus on staycations, drives, and short-haul trips. But there are so many dependencies—transmission rates, social-distancing regulations, border closures—that it’s impossible to make meaningful predictions. I’m curious to hear when you anticipate business returning, where your forward bookings are concentrated, and when you may start to bring employees back.