Lose Weight. Eat Less. Travel More?
I’ve been reading a lot about artificial intelligence and the untold number of ways that it could impact our society. And the more I learn about AI, the more I think about other innovations that have changed history in unexpected ways. The Pill, for instance, which led to women joining the workforce in droves and demanding equal political rights. Or the smartphone, which has transformed the way we travel, digest current events, and share details of our lives.
I believe we’re on the cusp of another one of these revolutionary technological advances — and I’m not talking about AI, or even Apple’s new AR goggles. I’m speaking of weight-loss medications like Ozempic and Wegovy. Known as GLP-1 agonists and originally developed to treat diabetes, they suppress hunger and help obese patients lose weight quickly and dramatically. They’ve become incredibly popular around the world and are poised to grow much further: JP Morgan recently estimated the market will exceed $100 billion by 2030.
GLP-1 drugs, which also include Zepbound, Mounjaro, and a number of others in various stages of testing and development, help patients lose weight in a few ways. According to The Atlantic, those include “slowing food’s passage through the stomach and preventing ups and downs in blood sugar. Most intriguing, it also seems to reach and act directly on the brain.” People on them are craving less, eating less, dropping pounds, and becoming much healthier overall. Patients reportedly have been curtailing other bad behaviors, like drinking, smoking, and gambling. The popularity of Ozempic and Wegovy has turned their maker, Denmark’s Novo Nordisk, into Europe’s most valuable company, ahead of LVMH. In fact, two-thirds of Denmark’s overall economic growth in 2022 was attributed to Novo Nordisk and other pharma firms.
Impressive! But the drugs’ popularity will have knock-on effects that we may not see for some time, including in the travel industry. The more people that take these drugs, the less they will eat. That’s potentially bad news for the food industry; indeed, Krispy Kreme, PepsiCo, Mondelez (maker of Oreos), and Weight Watchers have already been downgraded, experienced sell-offs, or indicated that they are adjusting their business models in reaction to the popularity of GLP-1 drugs. Famously, last month Oprah Winfrey stepped down from the Weight Watchers board after revealing she’d been taking weight-loss medication.
What about the travel industry? As Skift conjectured recently, “the winners will be those that have food and beverage as a cost. Losers will be those that have it as a revenue generator.” In other words, the coming Ozempic Era could be good for airlines, all-inclusives, and cruise lines, and not so good for hotels, theme parks, and other businesses that have food as a profit center.
Look at airlines: Food is a cost center for them, so procuring and serving even less of it than they already do would be a benefit. Taking it a bit further, passengers will likely weigh less, so fuel costs could decrease — a huge plus for an industry that shaves off every ounce of extra weight (installing slimmer seats, ditching magazines, removing pillows and blankets) to increase margins.
On the other hand, hotels may not be able to rely as much on food and alcohol sales to boost revenue as they do now. Of course, it’s not as if people on Ozempic stop eating entirely. To me, it’s more likely that travelers will simply shift their eating habits to healthier options. For hotels, that would still represent a major adjustment to operations and procurement and might impact margins.
A more positive take is that taking a GLP-1 sets up a virtuous cycle: Losing weight decreases stress on your bones, alleviates arthritis, increases your stamina and flexibility, and makes you feel better overall. That, in turn, makes you want to exercise more and take up more activities that further improve your health. That could open up a whole new market for active experiences, like hiking or cycling or ziplining, that were previously too challenging for many overweight people. So, it’s potentially great news for activity providers, as well as anyone in the wellness business (except perhaps weight-loss clinics). The better you feel and the better you look, the more likely you’ll want to visit a spa and continue your positive momentum.
Thinking beyond that, the widespread use of weight-loss drugs could also bring about more happiness. Right now, so many people worry about their weight (especially in the grossly obese USA). Remove that worry and you get a positive emotional impact on society. That in turn, could be very good news for our industry: If people are happier and they’ve saved money on groceries and eating out and weight loss programs, they’ll want to spend it on things that amplify their already good feelings about themselves — including, yes, vacations. And a happier populace is likely to be more productive, increasing economic output overall and creating a positive feedback loop that benefits a lot of people on both the supply and demand sides.
Of course, all of this is simply speculation at this point. There is a lot we don’t know about the drugs: Will the side effects, which can include nausea and vomiting, prevent mass adoption? Will the drugs’ expense (Wegovy can cost as much as $1,000 per month in the U.S.) put a damper on travel and other non-essential purchases? Or will increased competition lower the price, make the drugs easier to take (orally instead of a shot), and see them adopted even more widely? Will the drugs’ purported impact on suppressing other “vices” turn out to be real (bad news for Las Vegas and Macau!)?
As Gutenberg, Marconi, and Henry Ford would tell you, it’s impossible to anticipate the many ways a new invention can change the world.
What about you? Have you noticed any changes in your customers’ behaviors as a result of weight-loss drugs? I’m curious if any of you have personal experiences with the medications yourselves. Let’s keep the conversation going!